Looking back at community projections: Third Basemen

Published Nov. 10, 2009 at 8:00 p.m.
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...by Morry Gash - AP...

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...Casey McGehee pictured here hitting a grand slam, was an afterthought for most of us before the season...

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Sometimes a tornado blows through and leaves everything exactly how it was. That's kind of how third base went for the Brewers this season: Nothing went exactly how we projected, but the end result was about the same.

Projections:

Bill Hall
Projected: .262/.329/.454
Actual: .201/.265/.341

Mat Gamel
Projected: .274/.334/.442
Actual: .242/.338/.422

Craig Counsell
Projected: .231/.322/.332
Actual: .285/.357/.408

Before the season we were pretty optimistic about Bill Hall, with six of the nine projectors giving him an OPS of .780 or above. Instead, he played his way off the team and got to the point where the Brewers ate most of his salary and traded him to Seattle for a low level pitching prospect.

Worth noting: Mat Gamel's 2009 numbers don't really tell the whole story regarding his performance: Gamel hit .274/.340/.524 in 94 plate appearances as a third baseman, and went just 8-for-44 (.182) as a DH and pinch hitter.

Playing time:

Player	Projected %	Actual %	Diff
Bill Hall	41.6%	30%	-11.6%
Mike Lamb	32.3%	0%	-32.3%
Mat Gamel	24.5%	13.4%	-11.1%
Craig Counsell	1.6%	19.1%	+17.5%
Casey McGehee	0%	37.4%	+37.4%

 

Obviously, we completely whiffed on Casey McGehee. When we made the projections, many of us expected Mike Lamb to take his place on the roster: Instead, Lamb declined an assignment to the minors at the end of spring training and didn't appear in the majors this season.

Meanwhile, Craig Counsell had a very good season for him, but the fact that he received 50% more playing time than Mat Gamel is puzzling at best.

Overall:

	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Projected	.263	.330	.431	.762
Actual	.267	.330	.440	.770
Difference	+.004	Even	+.009	+.008

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